Housing construction in Poland in October 2023

Let's look at the situation on the housing market in Poland in October 2023 in terms of the number of projects being implemented, new building permits and apartments put into operation.

Polonya'da konut piyasasının Ekim 2023'teki durumuna, hayata geçirilen proje sayısı, yeni inşaat izinleri ve işletmeye alınan daire sayısı açısından bakalım.

The number of apartments delivered in Poland in October 2023 decreased year on year and increased compared to last month. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued has increased significantly.

From the buyer's point of view, the dynamics of housing construction in Poland (supply) directly respond to the expectations and needs of buyers (demand). In other words, the fewer apartments and the greater the interest, the higher the prices for existing properties.

From the government’s point of view, the increase in the number of completed apartments and housing construction in general is a positive signal that generates profit in one of the most strategically important sectors of the economy. This, in turn, leads to more jobs in various sectors, as well as huge profits - especially during a housing crisis.

Let's check what the housing market situation was like in October 2023? How much did apartments cost in October?

The situation on the real estate market in October 2023

According to the General Statistical Office, construction of 19,721 apartments began in October 2023. This is an increase of 3.3% compared to projects started in September this year. Year-on-year, this is an increase of 45.3%.

Meanwhile, developers themselves have launched almost 93 thousand new construction projects since the beginning of the year, which means a decrease of 8% year on year. In turn, in October alone, developers began construction of 12.3 thousand objects, which is almost the same as the month before. The indicator is not particularly high, rather average, and the achieved result is about 72% year on year - this is just a matter of a very low base.

Apartments delivered in October 2023.

The number of apartments launched in October 2023 recorded an overall increase of 19.7% compared to the previous month and a decrease of -11.3% YoY. In October 2023, apartments commissioned by developers added 13,248 units to the market, which is 2.6% less than in October last year.

The number of apartments commissioned has been at a relatively constant level almost every month since the beginning of the year. The overall result for October was 19.5 thousand, one-fifth better than the previous month and more than 10 percent worse year-on-year. The result since the beginning of the year is 181 thousand apartments. The number of premises delivered is 4% less than received during the same period last year.

Prices for apartments in Poland in October 2023

October 2023 was marked by an increase in real estate prices on the primary market of the largest cities in Poland. A price jump was recorded in almost all megacities – Krakowie, Wrocławiu, Łodzi and Trójmieście.

Prices for apartments in Warsaw in October 2023

The average price of apartments in Warsaw in October 2023 was PLN 16,042 per square meter. Thus, in the capital there was no change in the average supply price compared to last month, when buyers had to pay an average of PLN 16,065 per square meter for their apartments.

Interestingly, during this time the number of premises for sale has increased. At the end of the month, the supply of Warsaw developers included 8,917 offers of new apartments, which is 520 more than in September.

In addition, on the secondary market in Warsaw there was an increase in prices for apartments compared to last month. Here, according to statistics, in October 2023, the buyer, when choosing a secondary home, had to pay 17,179 zlotys per square meter,

October data for Warsaw may be optimistic, as over the previous two months there was a huge increase in the average price per square meter of apartments available from developers. In August, this average exceeded the ceiling of 15 thousand zlotys, and a month later – 16 thousand zlotys. per square meter. However, in October the average price of apartments per square meter remained virtually unchanged. This stabilization is most likely due to the introduction of the highest monthly pool of apartments for sale in almost a year and a half, with below-average prices (around PLN 14,500 per square meter).

Issuance of new building permits in October 2023

Will apartment construction in Poland become more dynamic in the near future - especially in large centers such as Warsaw, Krakow or Poznan, but also in slightly smaller cities? Reports from the General Statistical Office for October 2023 show that the number of building permits issued has exceeded September 2023 levels. Moreover, they turned out to be better than the results of October 2022.

Thus, the number of building permits issued in October 2023 is 3.9% higher compared to September 2023 and almost 17% higher than the number of permits issued in October 2022.

Developers have become more active in obtaining new permits. In October they reached 17 thousand – this is already a very good and important result. Typically, this category of data is considered to be an interpretation of entrepreneurs' investment optimism. However, this time it is likely that further progress in this data category may not fully reflect housing sentiment. It is crucially possible and highly likely that a further push by developers to obtain new permits could be driven by the prospect of changes to the technical conditions regulation, which will come into force from the second quarter of 2024.

About prices for building materials

October 2023 was marked by an increase in the number of apartments whose construction began. It was also characterized by an increase in the number of building permits issued and an increase in the number of apartments put into operation.

The October data on housing construction from Glavstat, of course, did not disappoint, but they did not surprise for the better. In the case of developers, we are still seeing some insurance when starting new construction and reasonable activity in obtaining new permits. The future of both sales and developer investment remains in the hands of politicians, who will soon decide on the future of the mortgage subsidy program.

Source: website rynekpierwotny.pl